Monday, August 29, 2011

Positivity vs. Irrational Exuberance






We are almost there. Fall the season of harvest!!!  

Are you positive this year http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z45EB4TiYz4 or negative or there is a third choice Irrationally Exuberant. I believe the third choice was when dairy cattle went to $2500 for heifers a short while back. The other current might be corn going through the roof.



You may ask what is the definition of Irrational Exuberance and what does it have to do with the dairy business? The term irrational exuberance became Greenspan's most famous quote, out of all the millions of words he has uttered publicly. The term "irrational exuberance" is now often used to describe a heightened state of speculative fervor. It is less strong than other colorful terms such as "speculative mania" or "speculative orgy" which discredit themselves as overstating the case.



What!!! My definition is investing in things that don’t make an adequate return on investment and/or overvaluing your investments. Do you put the pencil to the paper or do what everyone else does? Do you look at history or only to the future? Which investments have higher return crops, dairy or equipment? You always have to put in opportunity cost even if you are paying cash.



We don’t know when, where or why, but one event can often be the catalyst for a lifetime of achievement. For the founder of Cactus Feeders, Paul Engler, that “event” might have occurred when he was 13 years old.

While Paul’s dad was away on a business trip, Paul slipped away to the local cattle auction and purchased his first herd of cattle. As he tells the story, I think we can all learn from his experience.

“On Wednesday afternoons when the sale was going on, I’d take my horse and go up there to work. So, when my father was gone, I sat up in the ring and bought myself a hundred head of cattle, and I didn’t have a dime! After the sale, the sale barn operator, the owner, said, ‘Paul, you bought some cattle today.' “And I said, ‘Yes, I did.’

“And he said, ‘You don’t have any money, either, do you?’

“I said, ‘I don’t have a cent.’

“And he said, ‘Well, how you gonna pay for these cattle?’

“I said, ‘I guess you’re gonna have to loan me the money.’

“And I guess I had a good enough reputation around there, that he said, ‘Okay, we’ll do it.’

“So I went home and told my mother. She had a fit. She said, ‘You’re gonna get the worst licking you ever had in your life when your dad gets home.’

“First of all, she thought I got cheated and didn’t know what I was doing. We had a neighbor who was a rancher. So she ran over to tell him and he said, ‘No, Paul did a good job buying his cattle.’


“I got the cattle home, branded 'em, put my brand on 'em, and just turned 'em out with his [his father’s]. When my father got home, he said, ‘Let’s go look at the cattle.’

“We drove over there. He said, ‘The herd got a little bit bigger while I was gone.’ But I was ready for it. I told him what I did and he said, ‘How’d you pay for them?’


“I told him and he said, ‘Let’s go down to the bank. I think we can do a little bit better.’

“And we got it all done, and instead of getting a licking—and this was a very touching thing to me—he stuck out his hand and shook my hand and said, ‘I’m proud of you, son.’

“So it was a nice deal and that’s how I got started in the cattle business.”

Cactus Feeders is now the largest cattle feeding operation in the world.



Agripreneur Anecdote

August 26, 2011

 By Kevin Spafford

 Legacy by Design Farm Journal



Do we have you thinking?

Saturday, August 6, 2011

What has been my mind this year? Stability!

What a ride this year has been economy good/economy bad. Would you like a stable milk price, a stable feed price? Join the rest of us in the dairy industry and all other businesses and employees and retirees. August futures Friday for class 3 milk $21.50 August 2011down to$16.97 in February of 2012. Source http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/dairy/class-iii-milk.html 8-5-11. You say so what. On February 7th the August 2011 was trading for $16.86 and January 2011 $15.73 http://www.dailydairyreport.com/data/ddr020711.pdf. Six months before August they were off 27.52% up. Even though the dairy business is better now you the dairyman need to look for opportunities to lock a profit between feed and milk.

I’ll bet you want to know if we should vote for or push Foundation for The Future. We at Springing Acres have not decided yet it is still changing as they move it to committees to see what our new farm bill will be. We believe in the free market system, so it is hard to put our hands on something that limits expansions. But in the name of Stability we are looking at it.

What will be happening next with Europe’s euro crises? The S&Pdowngrade? The answer comes only with time.

So keep analyzing feed costs, labor costs and develop a marketing and input purchase plan. Check all the biggies and visit sites like http://cdp.wisc.edu/Welcome.htm ; they have spreadsheets and literature to help you understand financial statements. It will help you be informed so you can keep you creditors happy and maybe even lease a few cows. Cows have the largest return on investment on the farm at least throughout history.

By the way I like the choose my plate I believe dairy is more prominent. http://www.choosemyplate.gov/